Friday, April 10, 2009

USDJPYm Analysis


Trend
Price traded within the downtrend channel. A breakout pattern formed on 09-Apr-09. Now it is forming ABC pattern with retracement at 61.8%. However, it needs to wait for the price break above B to hit the Target, which is 101.54. However, the RSI is in between 40-60 and ADX is below 25. DMI too, does not show the dominant signal. Hence, even if the price breaks above B, it could go sideways first before hitting the target. If it does break above B, the time target to hit 101.54 is 14-Apr-09 or 15-Apr-09. For this to happen, RSI must > 60 and ADX must > 25 and +DMI as dominant. If it doesn't, then I am expecting a consolidation pattern until a confirmed reversal pattern appears.
Other Perspective(H4)
Wider View
From Daily chart, the RSI is at around 60 where ADX shows Price-to-ADX divergence. This states that the price most likely consolidates for few more days until the next reversal pattern appears, depending on which DMI (+ or -) show dominance.
Summary
Monday(13-Apr) Trend: sideways
Trade: Wait for ADX confirmation (>25 with +DMI dominant) to trade the ABC pattern.

No comments:

Post a Comment