Gap down from the previous day. Lower low was observed. Downtrend was noted. Standard 6 shows convergence even though the MACD shows a bit of time running out. Applied Fib found that the downtrend retracement is at COP 61.8%. Short SPY at 82.64.Stop loss at previous previous high at 83.2589. Target profit is at 1.618 XOP at 82.04. MRE analysis was valid ad at 10.30am, the gap was not closed. Similarly at 1.00pm, the gap is still not closed and lower high was observed. MW news released: Sun shares plunge on reports of IBM deal collapse. Big Blue's offer of $9.40 per share rebuffed by Sun board, reports say. Also, high tech sector plunged. Hence, SPY is expected down today.
Actual Outcome
Losing trade
What went wrong?
Could not find any news. Moreover, this is SPY (index ETF). It can only be moved by Interest Rate and Earnings. Earning seasons started from this week (week15-20). The only reason was self-fulfilling prophecy (Apr is the most bullish month of the year). Also, the stop-loss of previous (x2) should be based on day candle, not less than that. If I used the day candle of previous (x2) high, I won't be stopped out. Instead, I should have earned a profit.
Losing trade
After the Italy earth quake, EUR/USD saw a downtrend. Fid analysis provided a beautiful trend. Both XOP and XXOP were tested.I performed candlestick counting technique.
What went wrong?
I was mistaken as I counted the Doji as the first candle. The Doji supposed to be discounted. However, the candle-counting still valid as the 5th candle reversal was observed.
My loss: $40 cut loss.
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