Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Late Rally

SPY Paper Trade (2D5min)


BMO & Upon MO
Market open with a gap down due to profit-taking of previous 246-surge on last Thursday (3-Day Weekend, self-fulfilling prophecy, last Friday was Good Friday). Besides, the news of GM reportedly preparing bankruptcy, which The New York Times reports GM has been told by the Treasury to lay the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing by a June 1 deadline, also helped to push the SPY further down. The gap down was from 85.81 (previous close) to 84.91 (today’s open).

Technical Analysis
MRE
Window was closed at both 9.40am. At both 10.30am and 1.00pm, the window remained close.

Breakout Pattern
Price broke out the upper resistance of the ascending triangle. Upper target of the triangle = 86.09.

Fibonacci
Upside Fib applied, 1.618 was sitting at 86.06 (coincide with the target of the triangle).

Entry
Went long at 85.72 for 100 shares, target at 86.16 for Day Trade (time 3:08am)

Outcome
Target hit 86.16 and further to 86.34, profit took at 86.21 at 3:38am. Profit was USD49. Deducted USD10 for commission (USD5 to open and USD5 to close), net profit was USD39.

Post Trade Observation

Price further rose to 86.54 before reversal. The late rally was due to the rally of the financial stocks.

The news released from MW was:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Major financial stocks rose broadly Monday, bucking what had been a down market for much of the session, as investors' expectations grow over what this week's financial results will show.
Citi, which reports first-quarter results later this week, has decided to include Nikko Citigroup Ltd. in its plan to sell Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. and Nikko Asset Management Co. in Japan, Kyodo News reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
"Enthusiasm over Citi's rise on Monday should be tempered by putting the bank's stock price in perspective," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "Twelve months ago the stock was $30 and now it's at $3. It's bouncing off the bottom because they're selling assets."
Hogan added that assumptions that all 19 banks, including Citi, are going to pass the government's stress test also have had the effect of bolstering the stock, as well as that of Bank of America Corp.

How I Got It?
Correct TA was applied and MRE was used for minimizing risk.

How Can I Improve?
Earlier long entry at 1.20pm at 85.42 could reap me more profit as it has already hit the OP level. Furthermore, with referring to the Standard 6, all the indicators showed convergence. However, the ascending triangle breakout pattern has not been confirmed but the gap-up opening Marubozu candle could possibly show a bullish signal too.

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