Kidding Green Shoots?

Futures:

News:

- General Motors is locked in a critical countdown.

- Asian markets was rattled by the N.Korea's nuclear tension.

Commodities:

Analysis:

- $INDU now is sitting at the Jan-Feb 09 Resistance and Nov-Dec 08 Support.

- Once 8223 support is broken, it is expected to hit 7994.

- Opinion of today's market: down

Is There Any Excuse Not to be Bearish?

Pre-Market Futures

Analysis:

- Oils proce dropped.

- European markets tank.

- Asian markets darkened.

News:

U.S. stock futures slipped Thursday, as Standard & Poor's move to lower the credit-rating outlook on Britain raised fears that a downgrade of the U.S. government's debt rating could be coming soon as well.

Data released Thursday showed continuing claims rising by 75,000 in the latest week, though initial claims dropped by 12,000. Still to come are releases on a Philadelphia-area manufacturing gauge for May and leading economic indicators for April that are due at 10 a.m.

Opinion:

- Down big

FOREX Trade

USDJPY(5mins)

Analysis:
· Harami at the downtrend was observed, signaling end of downtrend, might go sideways or reversal. Need conformation.
· Followed by Bullish Engulfing, showed strong reversal pattern. Huge commitment should be followed after the Bullish Engulfing. However, the 2nd candle turned out to be small. Fearing of 3rd candle reversal, the LONG entry was on-hold. 3rd candle showed Marubozu. This showed a strong confirmation and commitment.
· A LONG entry was placed at 96.40 for 1 mini lot (1 x 10000). 4th candle turned out to be large commitment.
· Fearing of 5th candle reversal, the LONG position was closed at 96.72 for 1 mini lot (1 x 10000).
· Indeed, the 5th candle reversal was confirmed and followed by a doji. Then the candles went for sideways.

Trade:
Long Entry at 94.60 for 1 x 10000
Exit at 94.72 for 1 x 10000
Profit = 12 pips

GBPUSD(5mins)

Forex Trade (USDJPYm)

This trade was based on mainly Fib retracement technique + (RSI & ADX & SMA) convergence. Several retracement was observed. Furthermore, the 1.618% confluence was found in between 96.84 ~ 96.84. As this zone has been penetrated, the next confluence (Fid zone) is at the zone between 95.87 ~ 96.17.

DHI JUN11.00 PUT

Pattern
DHI retraced at the Fib 61.8% (COP) level. Upon breaking below the B (OP) level, entry triggered and target at DHI stock = 11.78 (Fib 1.618%, XOP)

Indicators
All showed convergence. No excuse not to trade.

Trade
Entry: Bought JUN11.00 Put Option at premium = 1.25, 4 contracts (DHI stock @ 11.34).
Entry: Bought JUN11.00 Put Option at premium = 1.35, 10 contracts (DHI stock @ 11.25).

Stop: pending order, sold JUN11.00 Put Option, 4 contracts if DHI <= 10.78.
Exit: Stop triggered, sold JUN11.00 Put Option at premium = 1.50, 4 contracts (DHI stock @ 10.78).
Exit: Close all, sold JUN11.00 Put Option at premium = 1.40, 10 contracts (DHI stock @ 10.94).

Profit/Loss
USD100.00 (first 4 contracts) + USD150.00 (second 10 contracts) = USD250.00

Warning Sign of Emerging Bear

My Analysis
$INDU(5y1w)

$INDU(1y1d)

The price now retraces at the 2008Q4 support, unable to breakout. Indicators are showing mostly divergence. Based on the Fib, the next low is expected coming soon. As per Conrad's analysis, the next low should be at around 6000.

SPY(1y1d)

SPY(5d5m)

Still waiting for the price to break below the OP level. Today, the market opened gap down and the window was closed at 10.05am. Based on the volatility alone, one could scalp the market.

My Opinion

$INDU & SPY: sideways + bearish

Market Continues Downtrend

BMO News Released:
Caterpillar swings to loss on workforce charge
Heavy machinery giant Caterpillar Inc. on Tuesday says it swings to a first-quarter loss, hurt by charges related to job cuts, as the prolonged economic slump and falling commodities prices continue to sap demand from the company’s top customers.

U.S. stocks start down as corporate earnings weigh
U.S. stocks opened lower on Tuesday, extending the prior session's steep decline, amid worries about the health of banks and as earnings reports weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 32.58 points to 7,809.15. The S&P 500 Index declined 3.24 points to 829.15, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 4.16 points to 1,604.05.

After Market Opens
U.S. stocks tilt mostly higher as Western Union delivers
U.S. stocks on Tuesday mostly erased opening losses as investors considered a mixed bag of corporate results, including better than expected results from Western Union Co. . The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6.30 points to 7,835.43. The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.16 points to 833.55, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 14.09 points to 1,622.30.

Technical Analysis
SPY(5d5m)

Fibonacci
Plotted a downside Fib, found that now the price retraces near the COP (61.8%). If it reverse at the COP and goes down pass the OP level, a short entry could be placed.

Indicators
6 indicators shows upside convergence. However, Stochastic and RSI are at their overbought level, starts to form reversal. Upside trend shows a weak strength, losing momentum.

Candlestick
Harami at the uptrend from the swing low point shows 'end of the uptrend'. It was then followed by a series of smaller candles of consolidation pattern. This further shows a strong signal of possible reversal.

Entry
Short entry could be placed upon the price retraces down passing the OP level.